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1. A Report “Negotiating with the Taliban: six critical conditions that must be met to avoid another “Peace to End All Peace” by CSIS on 17 Jan, 2012 highlights six conditions to ensure that negotiations do not become an extension of war by other means.
2. These six conditions discussed in the report are as under:
i. It must be absolutely clear that the US must take the lead in working with its allies and other donors to show that it is committed to support the Afghan govt through and after 2014, that it will ensure the funding of the ANSF and govt budget budget so it can survive transition, and will be prepared to leave some mil forces and strategy advisory teams as long as necessary
ii. US, ISAF, and Afghan forces must be strategy enough for the fighting to go on until it is clear that the Taliban have accepted a meaningful peace, and a peace must then be enforceable. US and ISAF forces must phase down in ways that allow the Afghan forces to develop and take effective response for security, and Afghan forces must demonstrate that the insurgents cannot win as US and ISAF withdrawals.
iii. The full range of Afghan factions and key elements of power must be included.
iv. The role of Pak must be clear and limited
v. There must be no false transfers of power or impractical cease fires
vi. The Afghan govt must provide reform and more effectiveness governance in return for US, allied, other donor, and Afghan support.
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Analysis of the above report by an expert who has been working at a high position on Pak – Afghan- US issues is as under:
These analysts from the West do not understand the Afghan psyche. For most of the Afghans they have been invaded and humiliated by the US and it's Allies for no fault of theirs. The conditions are unrealistic and will not work.
1. They expect the Taliban to accept presence of US forces in Afghanistan in some form after 2014. They also expect to retain bases for use against Iran and domination of the region. These will never be acceptable to the Taliban who simply want all foreign forces to leave Afghanistan.
2. Karzai Govt will not survive the US withdrawal and Mr Karzai,s fate will be no different to Najibullah if he tries to hold on to power.
3. The Afghan national Army will disintegrate into ethnic factions and some sort of civil war is likely to ensue.
4. The article talks about limiting Pakistan,s influence and preventing it from using Afghanistan against India not realizing that Afganistan does not border India and as such is of no use against that country. On the contrary it borders Pakistan and can pose a serious threat in the shape of a two front scenario.
5. True to their tradition all these promises of aid to rebuild Afghanistan after a peace agreement will not be honoured and aid will be gradually cut off on one pretext or the other.
6. Afghanistan will only stabilize after a factional fight in which one side manages to defeat the other or else the country will split along ethnic lines.
7. Al-Qaida is almost finished in this area and the remnants are increasingly becoming irrelevent. It is the Taliban who being sons of the soil will continue to exist and are the most important element which will decide the future shape of things in Afghanistan.
8. The US is finding it hard to digest that they can kill the Taliban but can not defeat them. The arrogance of being a super power has blinded them to realities on the ground and it has become very frustrating for them not to have succeeded in having converted Afghanistan into a secure base for US to dominate this region and exploit economic/ mineral potential of Afghanistan in peace and with security.
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